Chimerix Inc. (CMRX) has been on an explosive run, surging to $8.50 as of March 21, 2025. The stock has demonstrated remarkable momentum, but traders and investors now face a crucial question: Can CMRX continue its bullish streak, or is a pullback imminent? Let’s dive into the technical indicators and uncover what’s next for this biotech stock.
RSI Screams Overbought – Time to be Cautious?
CMRX’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 84.55, placing it deep into overbought territory. Typically, an RSI above 70 suggests that a stock has been heavily bought and may be due for a pullback. At 84.55, we are looking at extreme conditions that could signal exhaustion in the rally.
While a high RSI alone doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, it does indicate that the risk of a short-term cooldown is growing. Smart money may start locking in profits, leading to a period of consolidation or even a slight dip.
Bollinger Bands Indicate High Volatility – Breakout or Breakdown?
The Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, reflecting high volatility after what was previously a tight squeeze. A Bollinger Band squeeze often precedes a major price move, and in this case, CMRX’s breakout was undeniable. However, with the stock now pushing toward the upper band at $10.69, there’s a chance that it has overshot its momentum.
If the price fails to sustain above $8.50 and starts reversing, we could see a mean reversion toward the middle band or even lower support levels. On the flip side, a continued push beyond $9.00 could reignite buying interest.
MACD Crosses Bearish – A Warning Sign for Bulls?
Despite the stock’s powerful run, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) just crossed below its Signal Line, a classic bearish divergence. This indicates that bullish momentum is slowing down, even if the stock price remains elevated.
The MACD histogram is also decreasing, suggesting that the stock’s momentum is weakening. When this happens after a strong rally, it often signals a potential cooling-off period or even a short-term reversal.
Probability of a 5% Increase in the Next 10 Days
Given the mix of technical indicators, the likelihood of CMRX adding another 5% (to $8.93 or higher) within the next 10 days sits at about 5 out of 10. While the long-term trend remains strong, the combination of overbought RSI, a widening Bollinger Band range, and a bearish MACD crossover suggests that the stock may need to consolidate before making another move higher.
Traders should keep a close eye on how CMRX reacts to key resistance and support levels. If it breaks past $9.00, we could see another wave of buying. However, if it starts dipping below $8.00, a retracement to lower levels may be in play.
CMRX has delivered impressive gains, but with technical indicators flashing warning signs, caution is warranted. Momentum traders may want to wait for a clearer signal before jumping in, while long-term investors should prepare for potential volatility.
As always, the market is unpredictable, but the charts provide valuable insights. Whether CMRX continues its surge or takes a breather, one thing is certain—this stock is one to watch.
Chimerix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing medicines for life-threatening diseases. Its pipeline includes ONC201, in Phase 3 for H3 K27M-mutant diffuse glioma and Phase 2 for rare neuroendocrine tumors; ONC206, in Phase 1 for primary central nervous system tumors; ONC212, a GPR132 agonist for oncology; and CMX521, an antiviral for SARS-CoV-2. The company has a license agreement with SymBio Pharmaceuticals for TEMBEXA, targeting diseases beyond orthopoxviruses, including smallpox. Founded in 2000, Chimerix is based in Durham, North Carolina.